Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".